The Syrian war--not the war in Syria, but the war about Syria; that one which is fought in Foggy Bottom and Langley and the Lubyanka--is waged with the primary policy objective being the prevention of escalation. Both Washington and Moscow (with Ankara being a third player to be touched on later) ultimately place more value on the cessation of hostilities than on achievement of any specific policy objectives.
This Syrian war is more comparable to a game of nuclear chicken than an out-and-out conflict, wherein moves on the game board are primarily about managing perceptions of irrationality and will-to-kill rather than out-and-out attacks on enemy assets. This projected appearance of volatility, i.e. the pretense of insanity and apparent willingness of one side to escalate to unconscionable levels, is intended to limit policy options for opposing decision-makers.
Now, any analyst or decision-maker worth his salt is aware of this dynamic. USG's apparent unwillingness to act accordingly is probably more a result of their entanglements (Pentagon-backed Kurdish militiamen fighting CIA-backed Arab rebels over land that NATO ally Turkey is evidently willing to go to war over) than outright stupidity--though you could very easily make the case that USG is stupid enough to have let events bind their hands like this.
War thus becomes a game of intentional analysis, wherein deducing the enemy's designs upon your assets takes a front seat to the actual movement or utilization of assets. Determining the intent and strength of will on the part of your opponent takes higher priority than determining capability, simply because all sides in the conflict have the capability to wreak unimaginable damage upon the world order, let alone Syria itself.
Capability is set at ∞ for all actors. Willingness to escalate is the variable that matters.
Turkey has played this angle most effectively out of all the actors, though one wonders whether this is because they manage perceptions better than the others, or if their demonstrated willingness to escalate is a result of actual irrationality. This may be the single most important question of the war; and certainly is for the YPG.
Russia is playing the game the way it should be played--the deployment of advanced air defense systems and wings of fighters throughout Syrian government territory reinforces the image of willingness to escalate while simultaneously providing concrete defense for all assets in-country, if and when this becomes a shooting war. Their moves on the game board are an abstract letter to Turkey, and pro-opposition countries in general:
"You cannot escalate. Regardless of your intentions, we have concretely limited your capabilities."
A hypothetical Turkish no-fly zone over North Aleppo will be by immediate downings of Turkish aircraft by Sukhois and ground units. Putin is not simply calling Erdogan's bluff--he is saying the reflexive response of RF forces in Syria will be to completely upend the game board if Ankara escalates.
Analyzing USG's strategy--or lack thereof--is probably going to take another post.
- a fyrdsman
Capability is set at ∞ for all actors. Willingness to escalate is the variable that matters.
Turkey has played this angle most effectively out of all the actors, though one wonders whether this is because they manage perceptions better than the others, or if their demonstrated willingness to escalate is a result of actual irrationality. This may be the single most important question of the war; and certainly is for the YPG.
Russia is playing the game the way it should be played--the deployment of advanced air defense systems and wings of fighters throughout Syrian government territory reinforces the image of willingness to escalate while simultaneously providing concrete defense for all assets in-country, if and when this becomes a shooting war. Their moves on the game board are an abstract letter to Turkey, and pro-opposition countries in general:
"You cannot escalate. Regardless of your intentions, we have concretely limited your capabilities."
A hypothetical Turkish no-fly zone over North Aleppo will be by immediate downings of Turkish aircraft by Sukhois and ground units. Putin is not simply calling Erdogan's bluff--he is saying the reflexive response of RF forces in Syria will be to completely upend the game board if Ankara escalates.
Analyzing USG's strategy--or lack thereof--is probably going to take another post.
- a fyrdsman
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